There was a pattern to American politics for a long time. Democrats knew they could win by a lot in California, New York, and Illinois. They could then add wins in the Midwest to get to the White House. But the South, the Plains, and most of the Mountain West were very supportive of the Republicans.
But that equation is changing as the 2030 Census approaches closer. Analysts suggest that by 2032, Democrats may have a harder difficulty reaching to 270 electoral votes. Republicans may have an edge that isn’t based on short-term elections but on long-term shifts in demography and the ability to redraw district lines.
For elder Americans who have seen political struggles for decades, this moment feels like the end of an era, with the map of the country changing.
People Who Are Moving
The main factor is migration. Millions of Americans have relocated out from states with high taxes, a lot of rules, and high housing costs in the last 20 years. People have mostly departed California, New York, and Illinois.
Where are people going? In the South and the Sun Belt. Some of the biggest winners include Texas, Florida, Arizona, and the Carolinas. Every year, more people move there because of the strong job markets, nice weather, and low cost of living.
These shifts have big effects on politics since congressional seats, and hence electoral votes, are strongly tied to population. The Census numbers are very clear:
It seems that Illinois, New York, and California will lose seats in the House of Representatives.
Texas might get at least two more seats.
Florida will probably get one or more seats.
The Carolinas and Arizona are likewise primed to grow.
Every new seat in Congress gets an electoral vote. That means that not only is political power spreading around the country, but it is also migrating toward places where Republicans are stronger.
The Democratic Map Gets Smaller
There are still a lot of possibilities for Democrats to win. Recent wins have depended a lot on the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Joe Biden won the 2020 election because of those three states.
But by 2032, winning all three of those might not be enough. Analysts argue the Democrats would also need to win swing states that aren’t as big, like Nevada, New Hampshire, and Arizona. If they lose even one of those, the Republicans might win the campaign.
A party that used to count on large wins in California and New York to attract more votes is now making fewer mistakes.
Good things for Republicans
But Republicans are in a terrific position to win in a variety of ways.
They already own most of the quickly developing South and Sun Belt. That means that even if Republicans lose a big election, they might still have more than one way to get to 270 electoral votes.
Second, after the 2030 Census, Republican-led legislatures in states like Texas and Florida will undoubtedly be in control of drawing new district lines. By making maps that are good for them, they may be able to keep the House and their electoral college numbers safe.
“The road to the White House is getting wider for Republicans,” observed one political expert. It’s getting smaller for the Democrats.
You can’t avoid fights in court.
Of course, there is a lot of noise when redistricting happens. There will be legal issues in every round, and this one will be no different. What Democrats call “partisan gerrymandering” is already making them get ready to pursue lawsuits. Republicans, on the other hand, claim that state lawmakers are merely doing what the Constitution lets them do.
Democrats are so serious about the matter that California has even called a special election to redraw the maps sooner than expected.
But there are things that can’t happen in court. Judges can decide on lines, but they can’t prohibit people from moving. As long as Americans keep leaving Democratic strongholds and moving to places that vote Republican, the balance of political power will move in one direction.
What This Means for the Future
If the projections are right, the Republican Party might enjoy an advantage in the presidential race in the 2030s. On the other hand, Democrats would have to face the fact that their map was getting smaller and that they needed to win every critical swing state to stay in the race.
For Republicans, this trend indicates that they might not need to make as many modifications to their long-term plan. Reapportionment and population growth are already making things better for them. The Democrats have a deeper problem: they need to win over more people in the South and Sun Belt. If they don’t, they could lose the president for a long time.
A Change in Politics Over Time
Older Americans may remember this story. The “Solid South” always voted for Democrats in the middle of the 20th century, but over time it turned to Republicans. People are changing a lot today, not just their party loyalty.
The tale of America changing is shown in every new seat, every Census count, and every change in migratory patterns. Families relocating to places where living costs are lower, retirees moving to warmer places, and businesses moving to places with lower taxes all have an effect on Congress, the presidency, and the future of politics in the country.
The battle for the White House has always been fought on the electoral map. But suddenly, things that are a lot bigger than political rallies or TV ads are reshaping the map itself.
In the next few years, the arguments over redistricting will be about more than just lines on a map. They will be about what politics will be like in the US in the future. The Republicans will do better as the population shifts provide more influence to the south and west. But Democrats have to face the fact that their old trusty approach to win may not work anymore.
The story of the 2030s may already be being written by census statistics and moving vehicles. The problem for both sides is whether they can adapt rapidly enough to deal with a political situation that has altered because of the people.
